President Sergio Mattarella received the resignation of PM Giuseppe Conte on Tuesday
Source: Twitter
Certainly, any agreement to be found will likely be set up to exclude the League from any governing position. The leader of the League met with President Mattarella just before the 5Stars delegation, and, considering the PD–5Stars agreement as an “old-politics” custom, stated, “I have the suspicion that somebody has for months been plotting to form a yellow-red government. I have this in my mind since the 5Stars Movement and the Democratic Party voted together to elect Ursula von der Leyen in the European Parliament.” Despite all seems to point towards a red-yellow government, negotiations could be more complicate than expected. In fact, besides Zingaretti’s five points, the Democratic Party’s delegation will probably ask Di Maio to repeal the Security Decree, which represents Salvini’s big achievement, to change the manoeuvre (i.e. the budget proposal), and to freeze the MPs’ cut, which needs only one last reading in the Chamber to become law. Obviously, these requests shocked the 5Stars which mistrust the PD and believe that is not fair that the leftist party asks the movement to repudiate more than one year of government. On the other side, Di Maio listed ten policy priorities 5Stars want to focus on before heading back to the polls, and said “we have initiated talks to verify if there is a solid majority in Parliament.”
In the meantime, the other big player in this political chaos and Salvini’s most precious ally, Silvio Berlusconi, expressed his concerns that a government which “does not reflect the majority of voters and is a mere coincidence of opposing forces” could “not be the basis for a stable and credible executive but only a mockery of the voters and a betrayal of their will.” Forza Italia’s leader advocated a centre-right government or an early election even if he did not show a firm closing to another kind of agreement unless his party is included. Is it a signal that Berlusconi could opt for joining the “Ursula Plan” as it has already happened in the European Parliament, or will the octogenarian Italian tycoon accept to stay again in opposition and try to rebuild the centre-right pole? It is very hard to imagine 5Stars accepting to govern together with Berlusconi—and vice versa—but Italian politics has accustomed us to that there is no shame in turning your coat and changing ideas—an Italian custom which is often labelled with the more tolerable word “transformism.”
As a matter of fact, Forza Italia—which, as a member of the European People’s Party, may be reluctant to vote against a pro-EU government—might accept to give an external support to a yellow-red government and opt for a kind of “constructive” opposition, meaning it would vote for some bills proposed by the government while rejecting others in a last attempt to save its partially influential position in this parliament. On the other hand, Berlusconi is very keen on the idea of re-establishing a centre-right coalition with a clear and defined Atlanticist and pro-European inclination—that anyway is totally the opposite of Matteo Salvini and his party’s pro-Putinism and anti-Europeism. And this is a big question for Berlusconi. In fact, there is no future for the centre-right if the League is excluded—even if, at that point, it is more appropriate to talk about a far centre-right pole—but, at the same time, there is no future for Forza Italia outside this kind of coalition. In fact, polls suggest that should a new election be held, Forza Italia will be relegated to the margin of the political spectrum, with only 6% of the votes (in the 2018 election, the party obtained 14% and 59 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, and 33 in the Senate).
However, provided negotiations between PD and 5Stars fail, there will be no other way than calling an election already in autumn. In that case, the League is expected to gain the relative majority of the votes, while a centre-right coalition—which obtained very positive results in the last regional elections—could have enough support to form a government on its own without the need of other political forces. A triumph of Salvini in a new election would turn Italy in the first western European country and EU founding member which drift towards the far right. This could open up the possibility that the country could be more inclined to move towards Russia and be in perpetual conflict with Brussels, which sounds enough to make one anticipate that Italy could decide to abandon the Eurozone or even the EU. A scenario that would have deep repercussions on Italy and its fragile economy—which is even more endangered as a new recession is expected to start soon in the Eurozone—and which, for this reason, must be avoided at every cost.
The only hope for Italians is that Mattarella’s ultimatum will result useful for the most inadequate political class in the history of Italy to level out their different points of view and agree on implementing the appropriate measures and put the country back on its feet. Otherwise, Italy can but rely on the Immaculate Heart of Mary.
